Friday, 28 August 2009

Driving and trading

Someone posted a comment regarding relaxation time on a racetrack which is quite appropriate for a couple of reasons. Firstly, track driving is one of my favourite extra curricula activities and secondly it's got many things in common with trading. You need to focus, concentrate, plan ahead, guess what corner is coming up next, and have lightning reactions to the feedback you get from the car. Also, to be quite honest there have been a couple of occasions when I've described my days trading pnl as being 'like a f*cking car crash'.

Here's a video clip of me doing an ~8:58 lap (bridge to gantry) at the Nurburgring. (the ultimate test of driving skill and nerve). I liken this lap to an intense trading session when I come out the other side with great pnl but sweaty palms having narrowly escaped blowing my entire bank. (probably should have started braking a tad earlier at Wehrseifen, ~4:50 into the video!)

video

BTW, that's a full minute faster than Clarkson managed in his diesel Jag, in a 180hp hatchback. :) And speaking of TopGear, remember that episode when Clarkson went for a ride in that BMW 330 that drove itself? ... wouldn't it be interesting to see that go round 'The Ring'!

Wednesday, 26 August 2009

Illness blah blah...

I've been feeling a bit ill lately, which is a shame as I can't trade nearly as much as I'd like to. If you feel ill it's hard to focus and concentrate and do all the things that good little traders are supposed to do.

When I get better I'm planning on taking a long holiday because, hey, I can! That's the freedom you get from working for yourself. If you can call trading working. I mean it's just concentrating and focusing a bit and clicking some buttons and guessing here and there but to me it's work, honest! (No bots to see here guv!)

Actually, I'm not sure how much time all this illness and holidaying will leave me for trading at all! But hey don't worry, I'll pop onto my blog once in a while and bleat on about focus and concentration (but never actually post any really decent advice). I might also spend a bit of time working on my 'service' that I'm setting up which will provide you, the dear readers, with invaluable (although not necessarily for you) market analysis. Watch this space...

Sunday, 23 August 2009

Exit Points

Exiting your trade is as vitally important as entering a trade. This may sound blindingly obvious because basically it is. A trade consists of entry and exit, nothing else, so they're both vitally important.

Never sit and hesitate too much on a trade, the more you hesitate, the more confidence you're draining from yourself. (I'm not sure that makes any sense whatsoever, but I thought I'd mention confidence again as it's so important). If you really have to hesitate do it standing ... or better still kneel down and pray. Remember, it's better to get out of your position and start again. This piece of advice is invaluable! (maybe not to you, but certainly to someone).

Wednesday, 19 August 2009

Confidence is key

Confidence is so important when your trading. It can mean the difference between a profitable day and a losing day, even if you have all the other skills required to be a good trader. Think about it ... surely you don't believe that the price movements in the betting markets are effectively random and out of your control. That's simply not the case and one of the big mistakes that beginners always make. Be confident and use the power of the mind to make the markets go where you need them to go!!

When I'm confident I make money and when i'm not I lose money. Simple as that.

Oh hold on ... maybe that should be:

When I'm making money I convince myself it is due to confidence and when I'm losing money I blame lack of confidence rather than admit that I'm simply putting myself at the mercy of a random process.

Tuesday, 18 August 2009

Remember, it's trading NOT gambling!

That's the great thing about betting exchanges right? No longer do you have to wait for the race to actually occur to find out the result of a bet placed. Instead you can simply bet on where the odds will move to at some point in the future. Forget having to consider things like form, jockeys, trainers, going, weather, draws etc. like a sad old gambling addict but more fancy sounding stuff like weight of money, over-round, price bands, specific market tendencies (actually I just made that one up).

You can convince yourself (if not others) that what you're doing is morally and intellectually superior to what gamblers do. After all 'trading' is what those city boys do and they're all really clever, drive about in Ferraris or Astons, generate huge wealth and everyone loves them right! (mmm, ok ... pretend it's still 2005 or something).

Yes, it's definitely trading and not gambling and that makes it alright to pursue as a 'career'. Come on , seriously, who wouldn't want to make a nice living from guessing and clicking a mouse button occasionally?? And remember you can improve you guessing skills through focus, concentration, awareness and generally getting into the zone, man. Oh and having a crystal ball helps too which thankfully I do. :)

With regard to today's trading activities ... due to last nights visit to the Taj Balti I'm expecting significantly increased liquidity and having studied the markets will be keeping a close eye out for a steaming Stinker in the 20:10 at Worcester.

Monday, 17 August 2009

A good day

Today was a good day as the title says. I could have entitled this blog entry 'A bad day' or 'An average day' but that would probably have been misleading.

Around 12:30 there was a huge movement. This was very satisfying and well earned since I'd been on the pan since 11:58 focusing very hard. Time on the throne is never wasted though ... I was confident something would happen for me and I also managed to get through a couple of chapters of 'Fooled By Randomness', an excellent read I would recommend to all.

In terms of trading the day was also good. The crystal ball responded very well to my feelings of confidence and focus and really got into the zone for most of the races I traded. It's hard to explain what happened in the ones where I lost, but the phone rang once and the door bell went during another which interrupted my focus and probably explains it. I'm going to start keeping meticulous records of these types of events and see what correlations crop up over time.

I was going to post a screenshot of my pnl (which I was going to generate using http://www.juicestorm.com/betfairgen/) but to be honest I can't be ar$ed. Just trust me on this one eh, it was a 'good day'.

Sunday, 16 August 2009

Welcome

Hi, Welcome to my blog! I don't have any readers yet, which that's not suprising since I haven't written anything for anyone to read.

Basically the story is I have this crystal ball which allows me to predict price movements in betting markets. More specifically horse racing markets on betting exchanges. It allows me to trade and make vast sums of money which I feel the need to now boast about on this blog. It's not a perfect crystal ball though and sometimes it makes mistakes, usually when I'm not feeling confident or focused enough. It's hard to explain but that's going to be one of the aims of this blog.

Also this may not in fact be true and I'll not be providing any compelling evidence to support these claims so don't bother asking me to do this. I'll just waffle and spout rubbish if you do. However for those taken in and who feel they deserve a part of the action don't despair because I think I'll setup a service some time in the future and sell the wisdom of the crystal ball. Wouldn't that be amazing!